Our future generations could face serious challenges—even if carbon emissions are reduced, a new study warns.
Scientists at Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) predict that Earth could warm by 7°C (12.6°F) by 2200, even with moderate emissions.
This level of warming would make it difficult for crops to grow, leading to food shortages. Rising sea levels from melting ice could also force people to leave coastal cities due to flooding.
Extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, and tropical storms would become more frequent.
During summer, dangerously high temperatures could pose serious health risks for people of all ages.
Lead researcher Christine Kaufhold says the findings show an urgent need for faster carbon reduction.
“We found that peak warming could be much higher than previously expected under low-to-moderate emission scenarios,” she said.
Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane are released mainly by burning fossil fuels. However, they also come from natural sources like volcanic eruptions, plant respiration, and animal breathing.
To study this, researchers developed a new climate model called CLIMBER-X. This model considers key factors such as atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including methane emissions.
Methane is even more potent than carbon dioxide. It comes from sources like landfill waste and natural wetlands.
The study explored three future scenarios, called “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs), based on low, medium, and high emissions until the year 3000.
Most climate studies only predict warming up to 2300, but this may not capture the peak temperature increase.
Even if emissions start decreasing now, there is still a 10% chance that Earth could warm by 3°C (5.4°F) by 2200.
Researchers say the warming could be worse due to “carbon cycle feedback loops.” These occur when one climate change effect triggers another.
For example, wet conditions encourage the growth of flammable plants, which dry out and fuel wildfires. Thawing permafrost also releases more CO2, further increasing warming.
Cutting emissions may not be enough to stop these effects, as already-released greenhouse gases will continue to impact temperatures.
Limiting global warming to below 2°C (3.6°F), as outlined in the Paris Agreement, is only possible under very low emissions scenarios.
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, aims to keep temperature increases below 1.5°C (2.7°F).
However, researchers warn that the window for achieving this goal is closing quickly.
“Carbon reduction must accelerate even more quickly than previously thought to keep the Paris target within reach,” said study co-author Matteo Willeit.
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, highlights uncertainties in future climate predictions.
“Our research makes it clear—today’s actions will determine the future for centuries,” said co-author and PIK director Johan Rockström.
“We are already seeing signs that the Earth is losing resilience, which may lead to stronger feedback effects and faster warming,” he added.
“To ensure a liveable future, we must act urgently to reduce emissions. The Paris target is not just a political goal—it is a critical physical limit.”